Support for the federal Conservatives remains steady with a six-point lead over the Liberals and a ten-point edge on the NDP—CTV/Globe/Nanos Poll

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March 5, 2012

National Ballot CP 35.7%, LP 29.5%, NDP 25.0%, BQ 4.9%

 

Support for the federal Conservatives remains steady with a six-point lead over the Liberals and a ten-point edge on the NDP. The furor over the “robocalls” scandals has not, as yet, translated into a loss of public support for any of the major parties at the national level.

Despite its recent slump in support the NDP remains the party to beat in Quebec, although support for the Liberals in the province continues to trend up incrementally. In Ontario, the Conservatives and the Liberals are now statistically tied at 35.9% and 37.8% respectively.

Canada’s economic situation remains front and centre in the minds of many, with jobs/the economy pulling away from healthcare as the top unprompted national issue of concern at one in four (25.8%).

Stephen Harper retains a comfortable advantage on the Leadership Index, maintaining an edge of around 50 points over second-placed Liberal leader Bob Rae. One month ahead of the NDP leadership vote, interim NDP leader Nycole Turmel’s score is now comparable to that of Green Party leader Elizabeth May.

 
Between February 25th and 29th, Nanos Research conducted a random telephone survey of 1,203 Canadians 18 years of age and older. A random telephone survey of 1,203 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For 1,005 committed voters, it is accurate plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Results for January 23rd, 2012 are from a random telephone survey of 1,201 Canadians conducted between January 20th and 23rd, 2012. A random telephone survey of 1,201 Canadians is accurate plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

 
National Ballot Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed voters only – First Preference)
The numbers in parentheses denote the change from January 23rd, 2012 (n=927). *Undecided represents respondents who are not committed voters.
Canada (n=1,005 committed voters)
Conservative 35.7% (0.0)
Liberal 29.5% (+1.9)
NDP 25.0% (-0.2)
Bloc Quebecois 4.9% (-0.7)
Green 3.4% (-1.1)
*Undecided 16.4% (-6.4)

Leadership Index Questions: As you may know, [Rotate] Bob Rae is the interim leader of the federal Liberal Party, Stephen Harper is the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Nycole Turmel is the interim leader of the federal NDP, Elizabeth May is the leader of the federal Green Party and Daniel Paillé is the leader of the Bloc Quebecois. Which of the federal leaders would you best describe as: the most trustworthy, the most competent, the leader with the best vision for Canada. (n=1,203)
Readers should note that Jack Layton, Michael Ignatieff and Gilles Duceppe are no longer on the Leadership Index tracking.
*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from January 23rd, 2012 (n=1,201).
Leadership Index Score
Stephen Harper 102.4 (+2.6)
Bob Rae 54.4 (+4.8)
Elizabeth May 24.6 (+7.4)
Nycole Turmel 20.3 (-1.9)
Daniel Paillé 11.7 (+4.7)
The Most Trustworthy Leader (n=1,203)
Stephen Harper 31.7% (+1.6)
Bob Rae 19.5% (+2.7)
Elizabeth May 11.3% (+3.1)
Nycole Turmel 6.8% (-1.9)
Daniel Paillé 4.3% (+1.6)
Unsure 13.8% (-4.9)
None 12.5% (-2.3)
The Most Competent Leader (n=1,203)
Stephen Harper 38.1% (+0.3)
Bob Rae 18.7% (+1.6)
Nycole Turmel 5.7% (+0.7)
Elizabeth May 5.2% (+2.1)
Daniel Paillé 4.0% (+1.8)
Unsure 18.9% (-3.7)
None 9.3% (-2.9)
The Leader with the Best Vision for Canada’s Future (n=1,203)
Stephen Harper 32.6% (+0.7)
Bob Rae 16.2% (+0.5)
Elizabeth May 8.1% (+2.2)
Nycole Turmel 7.8% (-0.7)
Daniel Paillé 3.4% (+1.3)
Unsure 21.4% (-3.5)
None 10.5% (-0.6)

Top Issue Question: What is your most important NATIONAL issue of concern? [Unprompted] (n=1,203)
*The numbers in parentheses denote the change from January 23rd, 2012 (n=1,201).
Jobs/economy 25.8% (-2.0)
Healthcare 15.9% (-4.4)
The environment 6.4% (-4.3)
Education 5.4% (+0.3)
Debt/deficit 5.3% (+2.0)
Unsure 18.0% (+4.5)

Feel free to forward this e-mail. Any use of the poll should identify the source as the latest “CTV/Globe/Nanos Poll”.

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